Religious violence has long existed in the Indo-Asian region since man had contrived religion, even as recent as the seventh century with the advent of the Islamic faith, this influential tour de force had coercively influenced the region for a millennia and a half. Even with the Occidental colonial influence, particularly, from the British Raj, within the past three centuries, whose omnipresent influence in procuring effective geo-political diplomatic dialogue and redress, would help solve the problems of the religious divide that had infected the Indian race of people. This influence would culminate with the Radcliffe Line,(1) a de-colonisation resolution culminating with the creation of the modern states, of West Pakistan (West Punjab, and, since 1971, simply known as, Pakistan), East Pakistan ( formerly known as East Bengal, then, in 1971, known as Bangladesh). These nation states were the direct product of an irreconcilable religious conflict which would only be resolved with the artificial creation of these nation states.
(Wikipedia.com)
In the meantime, non-affected regions, such as Kashmir, which was similar to other Principalities, like Bhutan, Nepal and the Maldives, (2), were considered as independent regions and States, but, unlike Bhutan, Nepal and the Maldives, Kashmir, was unable to attain full independence, and Nation State recognition, nor, become assimilated geo-politically into either of the major nation. Instead, and, perhaps, purposely strategically designed by the Architectural master plan of Radcliffe, et al, was the politically strategic, soft State, positioning for the Kashmir province, which would serve as a bufferzone territory, by which, adversarial stronger hard powers, of India, Pakistan, and, even China, are kept at arms length from each other.
(Wikipedia.com)
This came to the fore, when the Chinese had engaged the Tibetans in 1950 bringing the Chinese right at the doorsteps of India, and then, in direct conflict with the Sino-Indian conflict, in 1962-63, with skirmishes over the Aksai Chin area, within Kashmir proper,(3) in which it would attest to the value of the Kashmir region, as a Buffer Zone, in preventing direct engagement between China and India with sporadic infiltrations from either side in cross border incursions.
(Wikipedia.com) The mobilisation of military assets between these very formidable military powers were always kept at arms length from direct territorial cross border incursions since the 1960s.
However, what has been on going since 1947, and the great religious schism of a nation along the Radcliffe line (Pakistan-Indian border), of 1947-8, resulting in the religious pogroms and the mass killings of up to a million fellow Indians. Even after the creation of the Muslim States, West and East of India, the religious violence had lessened only after forced religious migrations in and out of designated religious areas.
Today, the ongoing skirmishes between the Indians and Pakistani religious elements, have transmogrified into a geo-political sphere of influence at the battle scarred Kashmir province, and within this generation of Indian and Pakistani belligerents, seem to be have gained new vigor, with more spates of violence once again within the Line of Control (LOC) areas within Kashmir.
(wikipedia.com)
Recent incursions by the Pakistani military assets into Indian controlled Kashmir has been considered provocative which may flare up into yet another battle front for the Deodandi blend of the Sunni militancy with direct military support from the Pakistani armed forces.(4)
Although, India is primarily Hindu and Sikh dominated, the Muslim population are significantly represented within the nation with over sixty million Muslims considered as part of the Indian Citizenry. With this significant presence in the modern day Indian State, the Indian Nation are wary of not pressing the issue of a religious conflict least it may flare up into a domestic civil war. Instead, what has evolved is a regional sphere of influence conflict whereby the soft state status of the Kashmir province has presented Indian and Pakistani government with a particular geo-political crisis of where to draw the line in the sand, insofar as, honouring the buffer zone, status of Kashmir. It seems incumbent for both sides that Kashmir must remain a Soft buffer zone region in order for both Nations having a buffer, no mans land, buffer between them along a contiguous Line of Control, (LOC), into perpetuity.
Why is Kashmir important? No other nations in the world have the unique parity of military capability as India and Pakistan facing off with each other. Unlike, North and South Korea, whereby, their differences is political economic ideology, the Indians and Pakistani conflict, on the other hand, is predominately based on a religious conflict. However, the difference is that unlike another other Islamic Jihadism conflict elsewhere on the planet, Pakistan, as a Muslim nation, unlike Iran, is the only Muslim nation with Nuclear weapons. India, like Pakistan is also a Nuclear power as well.
Nuclear warfare, and, the most unlikely position of a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) does not register as a Clear and Present Danger situation for the Occidental world. Apart from a direct conflict between China and America, or Russia and America, the most probable countries that would come close to such an event is Pakistan and India. North Korea does not even come close to Pakistan as the most likely nuclear capable nation that is most likely to go rogue.
Presently, the storm in a tea cup in the line of control area, may be considered insignificant at this particular juncture, as compared to the South China Sea area of interest, and South East Ukraine, with the Donbass conflict, as well as, the distractions with domestic Jihadist acts of terrorism throughout Europe and Occidental targeted areas, the Kashmir region remains a potential combustion region that may suddenly draw global attention when it may escalate into something akinned to a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
Tim Tufuga
14th October, 2016
Sources:
1. Partition of India, Wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India
2. ibid.
3. Sino-Indian War, 1962-63, Aksai Chin, Wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War_of_1962
4. Surgical Strikes: US Says Empathise with India, India Press, ndtv.com, http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/us-backs-india-slams-pakistan-for-linking-afghan-peace-to-kashmir-1473450
