As the year 2016 winds down, the period of perpetual war within the Middle East has spilled over into Europe, and other parts of the Occidental world, with significant numbers of displaced refugees from war ravaged countries, such as the Syrian refugees, numbering in the millions. Such a dramatic mass movement of people along an epic biblical proportions can only be considered as a dramatic global event. Along with this epic mass movement of displaced persons which has gone hand and hand with the psychological and emotional baggage of post traumatic stresses of people who have felt the raw emotions of conflict. What also seem to have followed the fleeing masses is the violence as well. Acts of terror seems to accompanied the hapless victims of warfare and intermingled with their number are the potential terrorist elements seeking a window opportunity to seek out targets of opportunities within Europe, and other considered Kafir regions of the Occidental globe, in order to carry out their terrorist acts in the name of their religion, and, moreso, in seeking out vengeful strikes, by activated sleeper cells, or a lone wolf, against the Coalition of the Willing member nations. With these terrorist acts being being committed and the rationale for these violent actions may be considered justified by the perpetrators, as reciprocal retaliatory strikes, against the Coalition of the Willing member nations who, in turn, have committed acts violence and conflict against their own people and former homelands. Explaining this outrageous justification to innocent victims in civilian communities within Europe and elsewhere seem to be considered as nothing short of committing acts unreasonable evil against innocent people.
It is unfortunate for the Syrian refugees after having to flee their homelands only to be considered as likely terrorist suspects from within European Union countries. The bringing home the war seems to be a relevant moot for National Security strategists decision making processes, which are sorely tested to their limits in teasing out the obvious chaff intermingled with the wheat. This vetting and exclusion process will be susceptible to obvious systemic overload, and with this systemic overload, will obvious result in some systemic failures which will allow for terrorist elements to slip through the net and through immigration screening processes or the radicalisation of the local population to enjoin with the violent cause of the Global Jihadi narrative.
A National Security perspective.
From a National Security strategy perspective, what seems to be apparent is the level of terrorism activity which seems to have increased in frequency with an escalated level and scope of violence in order to spread the nihilistic message of social discord and disharmony to throughout Europe and elsewhere. At the heart of the paroxysms, and the perpetual war footing, from within many Middle Eastern countries is the twofold problems of failed states who have just suffered regime change through paroxysmal conflict whether it through an Arab Spring coup, or through an invasion from the Coalition of the Willing Forces, or through an Islamic invasion force such as the Islamic State which has caused the disruption leading to a failed state and an eventual regime change. First of all, and, obviously, is a lack of a strong centralised and cohesive government with a military presence so as to ensure National Security strategies remain resilient, and failing this strong government variable which would lower the national morale of its people, so as to recover from such a dramatic paroxysm event, such as an attempted coup d'etat, or an invasion attempt from a Islamic sectarian enemy, or an attempt by a secessionist ethnic group to expel a former government influence from within a particular region from within the territorial boundaries of the country. After all these powerful sources of social upheaval, trying to remain a united country and having its people remaining loyal to their government, and to their political and military leaders is simply a tough ask after such a paroxysm event. Secondly, and, perhaps, the probable cause for the first problem of a failed State, is the adverse influence of externalised sources for this social and political disequilibria. The externalised influence from international sources would dramatically influence domestic affairs, as aforementioned, which may be sourced from sectarianism, and exacerbated by tribal, and ethnic secessionist attempts, from a very powerful minority group which have factored into the paroxysmal event of undermining the integrity of a Nation's government. Perhaps the most salient example of a failed state may be exemplified when its own people are humiliatingly forced to move out of their former homes and country en masse.
The Syrian crisis
The most Salient probable cause of the Syrian civil war may be blamed squarely at religious sectarianism. The Alawite Assad regime is part of the Shia Islamic sect. The Islamic State and the Syrian Rebel Forces are Sunni. The internalised strife may be sourced from supporters of the Sunni militancy from within Syria, however, the international dimension factoring into the Syrian conflict is probably the most significant influence has come about by the Islamic State. The declaration of a Caliphate by the leaders of the Islamic State in 2014 within the Levant region would directly re-draw the Sykes-Picot agreement Map of the Middle East into a Sunni Caliphate covering territories of Iraq and Syria.
Added to this territorial re-mapping of the Levant has been the third variable, the Kurdish factor. The Peshmerga Kurdish forces have engaged both the Syrian Rebels and the Islamic State within Syria. As a significant ethnic group which have been disenfranchised and Stateless since the Sykes-Picot agreement, the Kurds have also been seeking to rectify a historical anomaly with regards to the existence of a Kurdish State since the Sykes-Picot agreement, in 1917,(1).
Often these sectarian and ethnic separatist conflict has been the overlapping narratives which have complicated matters in global conflict resolution which has caused many international forums decision making stasis. Presently, the Islamic State menace has become the new ever present danger which has replaced the previously considered Al Qaeda Network as the Western world most feared and resented international organisation. The Islamic State, led by a self declared Emir and Caliph, better known as Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi,(2) had declared, since 2014, a Caliphate State from within the Levant region enveloping parts of Iraq and Syria. Such an emboldened declaration of a new Caliphate State has elevated a previously considered a domestic civil war between the Syrian Hezbollah, and the domestic Sunni population; intermingled with an long drawn out Kurdish separatist movement; into an international sectarian war between the Shia world, and the Sunni world. The Syrian Sunni militant population have had the ominous feat of having to engage in a three pronged conflict, with the foreign Sunni incursion from the Islamic State's Fedayeen mercenaries; the Syrian Assad Government forces, backed by the Shia Hezbollah, the Russians and the Iranians; as well as the Kurds. The immediate fall out impact of this conflict has resulted in the forced diaspora of millions of Syrians from their homes spilling over onto neighbouring countries. The diaspora of the Syrians has led to an exodus into an overburdened Jordanian Nation to the South of Syria and north West to Turkey, and further afield into Europe, and, perhaps, beyond.
At the very Apex of this Syrian civil war resolution problem is the international community's response, particularly, from within the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), whose five permanent members, remain in permanent stasis over Syria. With no clear objective, other than a veto from any one permanent member would halt any effective decision making process over the Syrian crisis. The continual breaches of the ceasefire conditions exemplifies the lack of international respect ad regard for the UNSC by the Belligerent forces from places such as Aleppo. The UNSC resolutions for a ceasefire has continued to be broken by the Islamic Jihadists which is simply a reflection of the failure of the Islamic Jihadists in respecting non-Islamic international bodies which has resulted in international cooperation failures by Islamic Jihadists. It is for this reason alone that the global community, in general will almost never succeed in convincing many Islamic Jihadists to respect Secularist decisions with regards to brokering a truce, and a ceasefire. In the meantime, in dealing with the so called recalcitrant Russians and their reluctance to acquiesce to a truce and a ceasefire, is due to their suspicions that the Islamic State and even the Syrian Rebels, may commit to dishonourable deeds which may perpetuate the Aleppo conflict further with IS replenishing their logistical supplies and to continue their resistance or that the Syrian Rebels doing the same thing in replenishing depleted logistical supplies or ammunition, food and re-arming themselves, and to continue their resistance against the Assad regime, Russians and the Iranian forces. Such a ceasefire could prolong the war even more with the replenishment of supplies. The Russian, with the veto vote from the Chinese,(3) would therefore, strongly believe that the Islamic State problem can only be eradicated not trough a ceasefire which may help to prolong the resistance more. The Russian and Assad regime's determination to clear out the Islamic State from within the Aleppo area is not dissimilar as the present clearance of Mosul, in Iraq. Only then, will it be possible to have a lasting ceasefire, and, finally, to secure a safe evacuation from the city of Aleppo, of their civilian population. A purge of the Islamic State will finally lead to a lasting ceasefire. The Assad regime forces, together with the Russian and Iranian forces, may have to deploy a significant ground troops and to go from house to house in order to identify the Aleppo civilian population, from the Islamic State elements. And even more ominously for the Syrian Rebel Forces the Russians, Iranian and the Assad regime may also target the Syrian Rebel Force as being affiliated to the Al Qaeda networks and would treat them and the Islamic State in equal measure. The Syrian Rebels are made up of Sunni fighters whom are known, paradoxically, to be affiliated with the Al Qaeda Network. As the Syrian Rebel forces seem to have agreed, with their unlikely alliance of the Israeli Mossad, the Turkish military intelligence, and the central Intelligence Agency, in a situation of your enemy, being my enemy, makes you my friend, seems to augur well in this relationship. The Syrian Rebels are fighting not only the Syrian Assad government regime; the Russians; and, the Shia elements, from the Hezbollah, but, also the Iranian Armed forces; and, the Kurdish Peshmerga, from the North East of Syria. Already, there have been military logistical problems from within the Syrian Rebel, culminating in a fragmented resistance against the Assad regime and their Russian and Iranian support. Within Aleppo making the anti-Assad Syrian Rebel force has proven to be frictional, and a tenuously weak military alliance which has buckled in the knees in the face of the Russians, Iranians and the Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the recent Berlin terror attack has reminded the world that the global war on terror is still considered as an ever present danger with the same narrative of a Islamic Jihad by the usual suspects, but, in this Syrian conflict context, the narrative becomes more updated with the present Islamic State and Syrian civil war narrative setting the raison d'etre for the present terrorist acts. Previous reasons have included offensive Cartoons, sectarianism, the Yemeni conflict, civil wars as a consequence of the Arab Springs in Northern and Eastern Africa being brought home as the Chaff making their presence felt in amongst the genuine war refugees, and more often than not, the localised radicalised terrorists are lone wolves who have been embedded within the local population for years and even generations and have only recently become radicalised as actuals in a convenient raison d'etre narrative of Jihadism. Deep seated problems of social pariahship, cultural and religious isolation and resentment responses to a xenophobic community often is ignored as contributing factors for why certain lone wolves within certain European communities, and elsewhere in the Occidental world, would suddenly become radicalised terrorists.
The International Counter Terrorism Strategy.
There is a split in the opinion amongst the permanent five members of the United Nations Security Council over the Syrian crisis with the seemingly oppressive Assad regime and the IS problem on the other. In the meantime, Europe and Russian diplomats have suffered the backlash brunt to the frustrations and anxieties being felt by a people fearful of an influx of potential terrorists threatening their way of life with their blend of imported terrorism and the likely reactionary responses by certain domestic elements in targeting minorities. Internationally, there is a lack of concerted command and control mechanism which is translated into coordinated National Security strategies by counter terrorism strategies for the international member nations. The lack of cohesiveness and uniformity may be blamed directly by the groupthink mindset of the traditional cultural mindsets which creates a Babel Tower of international discourse which has led to many anarchic international institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, and other international bodies vacuous and possessing nominal power.
In response to the present crisis has been a seemingly stasis and lack of hegemonic leadership in resolving the crisis. In National Security Strategy objectives political and military decision makers have had to reconcile the desire to be tolerant of religious and cultural particularities of certain groups whilst avoiding racial profiling and cultural scapegoating innocent groups and individuals. Trying to clearly differentiate potential critical threats such as Islamic Jihadists from causing harm in the community.
The Islamic State (IS) was born out of the Sunni Awakening which in turn was the construct of the Coalition of the Willing's resolution to broker harmonious relationships between the sectarian conflicts from the post Operation Iraqi Freedom conflict. The outcome was the Operational fall out from Operation New Dawn with the rearming of the Sunni in certain Iraqi regions, in particular within the Anbar region, which included Sunni's from Fallujah, who simply became emboldened with the weaponisation of the Iraqi war machine who transformed themselves into the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and later still into the Islamic State.
The Islamic State have overlapped the traditional Sykes-Picot agreement which had redrawn the map of the Middle East in 1917, to the present Middle Eastern Sovereign States of today. With the intention of the Islamic State (IS), to construct an alternative to the Sykes-Picot map, the present Middle Eastern Crisis has become a historical malaise which has spilled over to the present global crisis.
The Middle East burden has spilled over as the Occidental burden
Presently, as diverse as the cultural lifestyles; political; economic and religious rituals; or the unique, culinary tastes, in entertainment, and sporting interests, of the world, so too are the causes and effects of global anxieties. Perhaps, the most salient of these reasons is the Islamic Jihadist narrative which has emanated from the present global war on terror which was significantly marked with two hijacked civilian aircrafts ploughing into the world trade Centre's twin towers, in New York City, in a symbolic Nebuchadnezzar-like religious Casus Belli for the Occidental Coalition of the Willing's ennobled invasion of the Middle East, since 2003. Subsequently, the reverberations of this mea culpa event has affected the lives of millions of people, nations and the world in a perpetual war that has become an inter-generational.
Indeed, almost all revised National Security strategic objectives, since 2001, have had some indirect influence from the September 11, 2001 event. In an instance, the universal enemy according to most national security strategists have for the most part become manifested in the form of a radicalised Islamic Jhadist lone wolf, or as an activated member of an Islamic Jihad terrorist cell. In Europe, and, in most Occidental societies, these potential threats have arisen from the marginalised ethnic, and the culturally unique, individuals, and members of a community, and often these include people and persons targeted for their religious beliefs, or sects, and the unique cultural habits associated with their cultural religion. In most Western societies these minorities include Muslim, Hindu, Confucius, Buddhist groups, and, even amongst Christian groups, the marginalised Christian denominations, which are targeted by the more numerous and dominant religious, and ethnic groups. Collectively, then these groups, undoubtedly may, and often do, feel acutely marginalised by the dominant Judeo-Christian religious institutions and in a predominantly Secularist community. Conversely, other potential social discord may be sourced by a xenophobic extremist groups, who differ from the assimilationist mainstream institutions of society, and who'd react against the targeted minority groups aforementioned. Such reactionary groups are considered the extreme conservative elements of society, who have become reactionary extremists. Such groups are Nationalistic groups, by whatever labels and titles they manifest themselves in, they are simply xenophobic to anything in which they have deemed not assimilated into the mainstream. The ultra-right wing nationalistic organisations, are Neo-fascist political organisations within any society and activated radicals within this blend of terrorism, are sympathisers, and who are material supporters, pf the ultra-right conservative view. Such ultra-reactionary would put into action their views through violence if necessary, as was revealed in recent times by Anders Brevik (4), whom had massacred many Norwegian Labour Party members at a youth camp, in Utoya Island, Norway. Such people have express their resentment at religious tolerance, multiculturalism, and resenting political correctness. Paradoxically, the Nationalist terrorist simply justifies their eye for an eye response to the present global war on terror against the Islamic terrorist. It is the flipside of Jihadist terrorism with the ultra-reactionary terrorist whose narrative is considered to be anarchic nihilism which is, manifestly, a political expression of their resentment of their own government's tolerance of multicultural minorities the most likely source for domestic violence.
The Mea Culpa and casus belli
Clearly, the most salient identifiable mea culpa, as a single terrorism act, had occurred on September 11th, 2001, which was then considered as the casus belli for the present global war on terror (GWOT). Eventually, with time, the wounds from this event would dissipate but the memory and lessons of being forever vigilant has been learnt. The grieving victims and an indignant nation would heal themselves after venting with seeking out and punishing the perpetrators culminating with the death of Usama Bin Laden back in 2011. Punishing the evildoers, at the source, in the training camps within the Tora Bora Mountains and other places within the proximate Durand line (5) seem to be a clear military and political objective in which the world would clearly understand and that the global war on terror is a justifiable noble cause, particularly, for an indignant Occidental world launching an honourable punitive crusade to the Middle East. Meanwhile, on the homefront, whilst a noble crusade war is being raged in a far and distant Middle Eastern regions, domestically, the National security strategies of most Occidental nations were reappraised and the first and foremost targets of this more stringent National Security strategy would be aimed at immigration policies. Xenophobic immigration policies became stronger which went hand in hand with racial profiling of certain religious groups, and perhaps justifiably so in some respects.
In the meantime, within the proximate communities, the outrageous outcomes of our punitive actions afar would not adversely affect the daily lives of the civilian population. It is expected, and hoped for, that if actions were remiss of any justifiable military or political action, in which, on hindsight, may be tantamount to a commitment of a war crime, it would be dealt with there and then, or, if need be, it would be brought home, and to be dealt with through the substantive and restorative judicial processes from within each respective affected governments for the actions of their personnel.
However, the war on terror within the Middle East has continued with the rippling effect of the Arab Springs resulting in coup d'etat regime changes in Libya, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern States, which would include the present crisis within Yemen and Syria. Meanwhile, for the ordinary American, Australia, Kiwi or European, at their homes, at least, would source their present day GWOT problems through the purported problem of people smuggling and the illegal arrivals of refugees, some from as far as Afghanistan. Apart from these war time refugees remaining in offshore detention centres the every present danger of actual terrorism for the most part seemed to be a very real but very remote threat. For the most part the only real danger for the Australian population is not in terrorist coming into the country but in radicalised local Jihadist recruits who have travelled to places like Syria in order to participate in their religious right to Jihadism. As for the non-Sunni or Shia Australian the global revolutions and coup d'etat within the Middle East seem irrelevant, and very distant, from their everyday lives. Life for many Australians, New Zealanders, Americans and throughout the Occidental world, would, therefore, continue to be unaffected from such violence, and nihilistic anarchy elsewhere. The perpetrators of evil doing, according to the post September 11, 2001, mea culpa for the Western Coalition of the Willing's participation within the military campaigns within the Iraq and Afghanistan, have been duly been dealt with and have been punished for their crimes against the free world in the name of their Islamic religion. The result of the GWOT for most Westerners was a prolonged war in the Middle East which eventually ended with the death of Usama Ben Laden in 2011. Almost a decade after 911.
Residual affects of the global war on terror.
However, the residual affects of the GWOT has dealt its indelible scars both physically, and emotionally, the physical scars and physical wounds of conflict have resulted in the returned servicemen and women suffering from psychological trauma, or post traumatic stress disorders (PSTD). Other residual affects of the GWOT has included the war refugees having to milieu around offshore detention Centres awaiting decisions to allow them into the country. After suffering the excruciating trauma of actual conflict, these people have had to suffer further with having to be imprisoned and processed like common criminals for arriving into Australian waters illegally and without sufficient documentations. The war refugee have had to be wait to be processed and are considered as the yet another war statistics.
As for the active servicemen whom have been deployed into active duty and have returned after enduring and surviving firefights and close quarter battle contacts, they would have even more harrowing experiences, as psychological baggage, to be brought home. When these returned servicemen feel that they have achieved something for the safety of their loved ones back in their homes only to find out that when they have returned home, they have also brought with them the war. Acts of domestic terrorism has brought home the conflict right at their doorsteps and a deflating feeling of futility settles into the returned Digger mindset when he or she realises that they had been deployed to serve their nations in a far away land, encountering hostile enemies, only to return home and to bring with them that war through the acts of terror by activated sleeper cells, and or radicalised lone wolves hidden amongst the innocent local civilian population. Whether or not this may translate to some returned servicemen who may suffer from some PTSD, and having become radicalised as a lone wolf, or had been recruited and to affiliated with a known terrorist organisation is not fully evidenced for many Australian Defence Force servicemen and women, returning from active duty. What has been confirmed for Australian citizens, and mostly non-ADF personnel, have traveled abroad to join either the Islamic State, or the Shia, or even the Syrian Rebels, in Syria, which has numbered in the hundreds, with a significant number of Australian citizens being killed in action, mainly as suicide bombers, driving suicide vehicles into enemy military checkpoints, or driving directly into the path of a military convoy of vehicles. Some have died in actual firefights in places.
More specific experiences of deployed ADF servicemen and women, of the forty six (46) confirmed Australian ADF personnel Killed in Action, officially, two hundred and thirty nine (239) Australian servicemen have committed suicide since returning from active duty in operation Falconer, Operation Slipper, and Operation Catalyst.(6)
Other more specific causes of advanced stages of PTSD for many returned servicemen may include either the Lima Syndrome (7) and or the Stockholm syndrome (8). Firstly, the Lima Syndrome, whereby the captors, and prison guards, would sympathise and enjoin the prisoner's cause, and would become a convert to their causes, and or anxieties. Or, on a the very rare occasion, is those who may suffer from the Stockholm syndrome whereby a prisoner or war, or a hostage, may be recruited to join the cause of their kidnappers, and or prison guards, and, would subsequently, become a likely recruited double agent, as was illustrated in the recent US television series, Homeland. Rates of suicide have become a pressing issue for many military veterans which may be due to their personnel harrowing experiences in actual conflict or having to bear witness to harrowing traumatic situations associated with their personal experiences within a conflict zone.
Insofar as, ascertaining whether some former low level prisoners may have become even more radically networked within Abu Ghraib prison such as Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi (or Caliph Ibrahim), the leader of the Islamic State (IS), with his eight months in detention, and after being released from the Abu Ghraib prison, and later still from Camp Bucca he may have attributed his well resourced network with his fellow Sunni cohorts from within the prison system in order to recruit his lieutenants for his Islamic State Fedayeen Mercenary army. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was captured in the first Fallujah Battle and was imprisoned as a low level prisoner from February 2004 till December 2004. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi went under the radar after being released as a low level civilian detainee. Relevant still, was the obvious fact that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was a Sunni Muslim born in the township of Samarra, Iraq, which is located only a few kilometres south of Tikrit, the township in which Saddam Hussein was born. In both townships, of Samarra and Tikrit, which is located a few kilometres north of Baghdad. The local population within these townships are traditionally Sunni. Recently, however, the Shia have attempted to populate both townships with their people, but, with some difficulty.
The Sunni Awakening and Operation New Dawn, 2010. (9)
The Islamic State it may have been argued was created directly as a consequence of the window of opportunity given as the Coalition of the Willing had departed from Iraq and with the full implementation of Operation New Dawn which would also include the weaponising of the Sunni Awakening communities such as the Samarra local Sunni and the Tikriti locals from the religious persecutions from the Shia. This Sunni Awakening led to the snowballing of the Islamic State which was, in part, blamed, unintentionally it must be emphasised, to the post Operation Enduring Freedom with Operation New Dawn. The Islamic State came into existence with the Sunni Awakening, in 2010. Hence, the present perpetual war continues to this day.
Operation New Dawn, good intentions helped to forge the Islamic State Caliphate: Groupthink. (10)
In the meantime, we will ignore the adverse affects and effects of the systemic groupthink failures with the punitive actions which was meted out to the Occidental foes and the resolutions which would rearm sectarian enemies to turn upon each other in a perpetual divide and conquer perpetual war. Iraqi government and their Coalition of the Willing allies which included the political leaders at the time believed that the draw down of Coalition of the Willing Troops would be help restore the political stability and cohesiveness of a war weary Iraqi Nation.
On 30 April, 2010, the United Kingdom formally ended combat operations. Prime Minister Gordon Brown characterized the operation in Iraq as a "success story" because of UK troops' efforts. Britain handed control of Basra to the United States Armed Forces. (source: wikipedia) In the meantime, the Americans had officially ended Operation Iraqi Freedom and replaced it with Operation New Dawn. It was with the new Operation that the Iraqi government experienced the teething problems of regime change. The remnants of the Baathist and particularly the Sunni Awakening were to resurface in traditionally Sunni stronghold areas such as the Anbar region, again Fallujah City would be a focal point for this resurgence of Sunni insurgency. Finally, the Samarra born Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi made his global presence felt with the Islamic State and the self declaration of the Sunni Caliphate. Obviously, the Islamic State Caliphate would spill over into Syria, and in particular, within the Rojava region, in the North Eastern region of Syria, and, more relevant still today, is the Islamic State stubborn resistance within Eastern Aleppo, and nearby Raqqah, whereby the Islamic State would coninue their fight against, the Syrian Rebels made up primarily of anti-IS Kurds, through the Peshmerga and YPG forces; and, domestically, a splinter Sunni, and Central Intelligence Agency, backed Syrian patriots known collectively as the Syrian Rebel forces, who, in turn, despise, the sectarian enemy of the Alawite, and Hezbollah backed, pro-Shia Assad Government regime. The Assad regime, in turn, are militarily, and materially supported, by the Russians. Which brings us up to speed to the present crisis. With the recent arrival of the Russian Naval strike battle fleet off the Syrian coast and the death of a Russian diplomat in neighbouring Turkey.
The Chaff comes with the Wheat.
The consequences of warfare is always anarchic nihilism and the irretrievable changes to former lives of people which has led to a discontinuity of a traditional lives from these war ravaged countries. As is in the case for Syria, Yemen, Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan and other regions pf major conflicts, displaced families, their disrupted cultural way of life, have led to a diaspora of epic proportions onto Europe and beyond. It is a realisation that the lives of people have become irretrievably disrupted, and that as displaced persons numbering in the million the consequences of war has thrust people to encounter xenophobia within hostile and inimical communities who view their misfortune not from the guise of wartorn tragedies but as burdensome undesirables fending off their quality of lives. Of course, ignored is the desperation of the plight of the dislocated group and individuals whose former uprooted lives can never again be restored, nor reconciled. The Rubicon decisions to venture to hostile countries for many is by choice but they have chosen to flee in order to survive imminent death.
As for the local communities, within the Occidental societies, the war on terror was meant to be fought somewhere else, and not in their workplace, shopping centres, within their schools, streets and homes. As for our cultural experiences of the global war on terror (GWOT), apart from the two million or so American military personnel who have served within Operation Enduring Freedom, and Operation Iraqi Freedom, most Americans, and other civilians throughout the Occidental world, have only viewed the global war on terror through live streaming on their internet, or, through the mainstream television news, and their experiences are considered only far and distant conflicts, and they would never want to be subjected to becoming actual victim of terrorism. However, with the recent spate of acts of terrorism targeting soft targets amongst the civilian populations. The conflicts that were previously considered to be from far away and distant lands have suddenly been brought home to bear. The new battle front in an asymmetrical war zone has suddenly become peoples homes, their streets, and their neighbourhood. The terrorist may be someone who has lived in the neighbourhood for years. Other terrorists may be newly arrivals who have intermingled with an influx group as the chaff amongst the wheat. From a tactical approach to battle for a respective terrorist Sleeper cell, or a Lone wolf element, within the community, the trigger for their radicalised activation may be triggered by a particular political, religious, or even a sporting event, or by the economic climate at the time. Critical Threat Assessors must effectively identify the threat variable before the event takes place. Herein lies the rub for most Human Intelligence (Humint) gathering Assessors, and then trying to avoid making mistakes and being liable for political incorrectness for racially profiling innocent victims throughout their community which invariably ends up embarrassing the so called counter terrorism experts when they get the wrong person. The hit or miss risk assessment only adds to the amalgam of problems for National Security agencies and services in doing their job well and preventing terrorism acts from occurring. When terrorism events occur, the system failure of detection is laid squarely at the efficacious National Security Strategies which is institutionalised to identify the chaff from the wheat. People must be replaced when any systemic failures occur and people are victimised by a terrorist whom has outsmarted the National Security Assessors and the critical risk assessors, and have caused serious harm to the community, and to the nation as a whole.
Subsequently,from a post facto perspective, the psychological warfare message, after a terrorist event, is often a message which would have some salient political or even religiously significant relevance, particularly, to a recent causal event affecting an aggrieved group, or individuals, which is manifestly expressed through a drastic act of extreme violence which is considered as a terrorist event. It is obvious then that recent global conflict events have motivated the terrorism that has affected most of peoples lives. The terrorism narrative of recent acts of terrorism has been in bringing back home the previously considered far and distant warzones straight to our homes. Previously. these conflicts have been fought elsewhere and what differs, from one act of terrorism to the next, in terms of the terrorist agenda, is the modus operandi of the terrorist, whether they are individual lone wolves, or are affiliated to some international terrorist organisation, as an activated Sleeper cells, or an individual lone wolf, whom may have a single thematic aim in their terrorist narrative in which it can only attract global attention through an act of drastic terrorism so as to strike fear. and apprehension, upon the population.
The problem for the National Risk assessor is finding the time and place for the next terrorist attack. An international political scientist would apply political deductive reasoning in guesstimating the next likely terrorist event, and the usual racial profiling whilst politically unacceptable in ost instances, does generally serve a closing in the loop of a likely terrorist suspect. Also, whom or who would most likely be a terrorist target. For instance, the global media attention on the Russian Kalibre and SU33 and Mig29 bombing sorties in Aleppo has brought the Aleppo crisis to people's homes and the likely threat variable against the Russians had dramatically increased and the threat variable included Russian owned industries, and Russian diplomatic representatives, in to the likely cross hairs of any or most Sunni Salafist Jihadist. Obviously, then the Russian Ambassador to Turkey was unsurprisingly considered a most probable target especially in a potentially rogue NATO member state like Turkey which is a predominantly Sunni State as well. In this instance, the most likely targets seem very obvious.
Berlin soft targets and the Jordan terror event. (11)
Adding to the long list of terrorism events throughout the globe is the most recent Berlin terror event which saw people ploughed over by a seemingly non threatening vehicle, a stolen truck driven as a weapon of terror so as to kill, and maim, as many innocent people hoping to enjoy their festive season. The Islamic State have claimed responsibility for the Berlin terrorist event. Again, their agenda is primarily focused upon the Islamic State's delicate and tenuous grip on power within the Anbar region, and Mosul, within Iraq; and, with Raqqah, and Aleppo, within Syria which is being weakened through the war of attrition and the grid by grid, house by house Urban Operations within Anbar and Mosul, Iraq. And with the Assad regime with the Russian led Shia alliance, which would include the Iranian military assets, within Syria.
Some one million Syrians are presently living in tent cities within Jordan, and Jordan had experienced a sudden surge of terrorism activity with numerous skirmishes near the Syrian camps were reported. However, over the weekend,(12) on Sunday, December 18th, 2016, fourteen (14) people were killed including four terrorists after a firefight between terrorists and local Jordanian policemen and French paramilitary Gendarmes engaged the terrorists and were included in the death statistics. Again, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the terrorism action.
The Russian Ambassador Assassination a casus belli event? (13)
His Excellency Andrei Karlov, would obviously have been considered as an Islamic State target, but, the Russians were also considered a probable target by the Syrian Rebels as well. In this instance, the Turkish Sunni and military who were directly involved in the present Syrian civil war by assisting the Syrian Rebels within Aleppo and their attempts to engage both the Islamic State, and the Shia backed Assad regime, whom are backed up by both the Iranians, and the Russians. Again, this conflict has reminded the western world of the Islamic sectarian conflicts which continues in other parts of the Islamic world.
The motivation for the assassination of the Russian Ambassador, the assassin had blamed the Aleppo destruction and the atrocities committed upon the citizenry of Aleppo, squarely on Russian military involvement in the Syrian Crisis. The Syrian crisis, nevertheless, has become a source of anxiety for Russian American diplomatic relations within the United Nations Security Council and in light of the assassination of the Russian Ambassador this matter may bring the Russians to a quasi Gavrilo Princip's assassination which was Casus Belli event which would ignite the Great War, in 1914. (14)
Houthi Zaidi in Yemen civil war. (15)
In another hot spot for regional tension within the Middle East, is the sectarianism and tribal conflict between the Shia and the Sunni within Yemen, which has also invloved international supporters for opposing sides. For instance, military and material support from further afield. The Saudi Arabian Sunni military machine have backed the Yemeni government's campaign to counter the Houthi Shia. The Yemeni Houthi are from the Zaidi Shia sect, predominately, are from the indigenous tribes, in North Yemen. The Houthi are also backed by the Iranian military, along with Hezbollah Shia factions, from all over the Shia world.
The Russian-American brinkmanship.
Whilst, the world may seem inured with the seemingly random acts of violence, and the wanton acts of terrorism, throughout the world, in what appears to be new, however, is the more brinkmanship tense relationship between the Russians and American which has become more urgent than even the Ukrainian crisis with the downing of MH17 and the Donbass conflict. With the Assassination of the Russian Ambassador, the Turkish involvement has been linked directly with the Free Syrian Army which has material and training support from the Turkish military. Again, the Russians and the Assad regime have been fighting the Free Syrian Army alongside the Islamic State with equal vigor.
From a United States Democratic Government standpoint, the Russian position within the Syrian region, would only add fuel to the allegations of cyber attacks and hacking of the American political emails leading up to the United States Presidential elections, rising the ire and tension between the two nations. Even the Russians are impressed with the American allegations of hacking of the United States election which would undoubtedly mean that the Americans have serious firewall and internet security problems and it would therefore assume that Russian hackers are superior to their own internet protection systems.
However, needless to say, that after the 2016 elections, the changing of the United States President has also changed the international relationship between the United States and the Russians. Whilst the outgoing POTUS remained firmly anti-Russian the incoming POTUS seem less hostile towards the Russians. The Republican POTUS seem to have reconnected with the Gorbechev Glasnost and Perestroika legacy era, whereby the Cold War period had certainly ended once and for all and the Iron curtain had fallen. The new regime of the Republican administration and their Russian stance has come full circle from the present POTUS Russian policy stance. With the former Exxonmobil CEO and Exxon Magnate Rex Tillerson (16) now assuming the mantle of political office, as the third most powerful political incumbent within the United States Government, behind the VPOTUS, and the POTUS, as the United States government Secretary of State. Secretary Rex Tillerson has not elevated the United States as a most favoured nation position within the Kremlin, but, Secretary Rex Tillerson may also be instrumental in preventing an imminent conflict between Russia and the United States within the Mediterranean Sea.
Presently, the Central Intelligence Agency and factional Republican rank and file led by none other than Senator John Cain, have insisted upon the veracity of the Russian conspiracy, influencing the US 2016 Presidential elections. However, after the recent assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, this allegation has been placed on the back burner for perhaps another opportune moment of political ribbing. For the present moment, the incoming Trump administration may be in a better international diplomatic position assert some diplomatic solution to the present Turkish and Russian tension. And for the time being the present hegemonic leadership by the United States will be sorely tested with Trump having to ease the tension between Russia and a NATO member nation it has truly become a global crisis.
At present, the timing of the assassination of the Russian diplomat could not come at a worse time for the Middle East when the Russian military presence within the Middle East are at critically maximum impact stance. The most effective naval strike fleet is anchored off the coast of Syria and Lebanon.
The Russian strike battle fleet flagship is the Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetzov, armed with air defense systems, and twenty six (26) SU 33 and Mig 29 multirole fighter bombers, and 24 attack and anti submarine helicopters and other augmented capabilities (17).(18)
(Source: rbth.com)Also, within this fleet are two Akula class submarines, and one Kilo Class submarine. Together with various Frigates within the fleet, the Submarines, and Russian Frigates, have launched Kalibre (Klub) Missiles (Russian equivalent of the Tomahawk cruise missile) (also known as the Sizzler by NATO) into various selected precision targets, within Syria, which has included Raqqah, and Aleppo. In September 21st, 2016, some thirty CIA, and Mossad agents, were killed by a precision Kalibre strike, whilst the agents were, purportedly, sheltering in an Aleppo bunker. (19)
(Source: Southfront.org)The role of the Syrian Rebels in creating a perpetual wedge between the Russians and the Americans over the Syrian crisis.
The Syrian Rebels, (or the Free Syrian Army) (20) are trained, and are materially supported, by the Turkish government, the Israeli Defense Force's Mossad agency, and, the American government's Central Intelligence Agency. Paradoxically, the Syrian rebel force has, more or less, become a very tenuous amalgam of the Coalition of the Unwilling alliance confront the Russians, the Iranian Special Forces, and the Assad regime. The outcome has been an indirect link to the Russian Ambassador to Turkey being assassinated, in Turkey, by a security detail, just a matter of weeks before the Trump administration are to take over the White House.
Once again, the Turkish Sunni linked material support for the Syrian Rebel forces within a seemingly sectarian conflict has pitted the Russians, with Iran and Syria versus the internalised Sunni forces, which have manifested themselves within the Syrian Rebel Forces and the Islamic State made up predominately Iraqi Sunni and a Sunni Fedayeen mercenary force. Perhaps, at the crux of the Syrian sectarian crisis, is the inability of the Syrian Rebel force to repel both the IS and the Assad regime whose use of the Russian Kalibre and the SU33 and the Mig29 precision bombing sorties into Aleppo and Raqqah have left an indelible impact upon the Syrian landscape. Moreover, is the inability of the Syrian Rebels, despite the American CIA's support are unable to make any head ways in the Syrian conflict, particularly, in calling for a cease fire so as to remove the wounded and civilian casualties from the frontline, whilst at the same time to assist removing some Sunni insurgents both Syrian Rebels and IS from the front line as well.
The Regime change in the White House
It is, therefore, considered as a crucial diplomatic role for an incoming President Trump administration, with the Rex Tillerson's favourable Russian connection, so as to assuage an indignant Russian political and military machine, which is frothing at the bit, in wanting and even expecting to commit to an imminent retaliatory strike, against the Islamic State and the Syrian Rebel force, along with syrian Rebel force's CIA, Mossad, and, particularly, the suspected involvement of the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation agents, in the training the Syrian Rebels within Aleppo.
It behoves the new Republican Government to attempt to assuage an indignant Russian government, not in backing away from a diplomatic stoush between America and Russia but more importantly to avoid an escalation of tension which will almost certainly lead to a fist fight. The Russian Naval presence within the Mediterranean Sea is ready and poised to strike any proximate target within Turkey, and Syria. More frightening for the world is the striking distance of the Russian Naval fleet to the United States sixth Fleet within the Mediterranean Sea. A brinkmanship situation has never come this close before and imminent direct conflict seems to have elevated in light of the Russian Ambassador's assassination.
Meanwhile, the Central Intelligence Agency with their new Director may have to reassess their military and political strategic and tactical objectives within Syria in light of a new United States Government which may not look too kindly to the Syrian Rebels' credentials as a Sunni backed military force. There is likely to be a new National Intelligence Assessment Debrief within the White House and the CIA and the National Security Advisor will have to sit within the Oval Office and decide what is the present hegemonic leadership position will be with regards to the present Syrian Crisis and where will the CIA stand and whose side they will stand in a fight that could easily escalate to being the casus belli for world war three.
By Tim Tufuga
22nd December, 2016
Sources:
1. Sykes-Picot Agreement, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement
2. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Bakr_al-Baghdadi
3. UNSC Syrian Crisis resolution, wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vetoed_United_Nations_Security_Council_resolutions_on_Syria
4. Anders Brevik, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Behring_Breivik
5. Durand Line, wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durand_Line
6. ADF Suicide rate, 2016. wikipedia, http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2016/01/since-1999-46-aust-soldiers-killed-on-active-service-239-returned-soldiers-have-taken-their-lives.html
7. Lima Syndrome, http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/LimaSyndrome
8. Stockholm syndrome, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome
9. Operation New Dawn, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War#2010:_U.S._drawdown_and_Operation_New_Dawn
10. Irving, Janis, Groupthink, http://www.psysr.org/about/pubs_resources/groupthink%20overview.htm
11. Berlin Terror http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/berlin-market-attack-suspect-named-23-year-old-asylum-seeker
12. Jordan Terrorism, http://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2016/12/18/jordan-terrorist-attack-in-karak/#ecacce84d79e
13. Russian Ambassador assassination, http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/russian-ambassador-to-ankara-gunned-down-during-art-gallery-visit/news-story/8678761871fa963d07d62ca83dc8caf8
14. Gavrilo Princip http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-28/franz-ferdinand-profile/5542910
15. Yemeni Houthis, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthis
16. Rex Tillerson, as US Secretary of State, https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/global-witness-opposes-nomination-exxon-ceo-us-secretary-state/?gclid=Cj0KEQiAyuPCBRCimuayhb3qqvwBEiQAgz62kf10_HqFLQrsgxgnNQhxWqd1M-YDKHNz9kb4hx8jvFYaAmle8P8HAQ
17. Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetzov, http://rbth.com/defence/2016/11/16/russian-navy-brings-the-big-guns-to-the-mediterranean_648383
18. Russian Navy off the coast of Syria, http://rbth.com/defence/2016/11/16/russian-navy-brings-the-big-guns-to-the-mediterranean_648383
19. Kalibre Missile system, https://southfront.org/russian-kalibr-vs-us-tomahawk/
20. Syrian Rebels http://www.voanews.com/a/syria-rebel-factions-aleppo-defeat/3642676.html
