Whilst veteran Americans service men and women, may still be licking their wounds from the global War on Terror (GWOT) now being morphed into an asymmetrical conflict without a border, or a battle front. Nor is such a conflict centred within a particularised theatre of war within geographic territory within the Middle East per se, like within the Tora Bora Mountains, within Afghanistan, or Fallujah, in Iraq. Instead, the global war on terror is what it is, in an asymmetrical global war context whereby acts of terror is the present day modern day war zones of asymmetrical theatre of conflict which has brought the conflict directly into the civilian community. Asymmetrical conflict and terrorism aims to disrupt the unsuspecting population to violent acts of terror, and transform innocent civilians and other valued assets as collateral damaged victims of a perpetual global war on terror. The global war on terror, therefore, has moved the conventional war zone away from a traditional warzone and an actual theatre of war changing the entire mindset of warcraft into the twenty first century. In a conventional conflict setting, making war was simply a designated conflict zone, which would be clearly mapped out on a map and whereby a tactical approach to battle is, thereby, strategically planned, and tacitcally executed, by military personnel, using various military assets. Such assets may also include undeclared warzones even amongst allied territories such as an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) making an incursion into NATO member ally, like Turkey or Pakistan. In such a changed environment of modern global war strategies, and tactics, the predictability of modern day warfare is no longer determined by the traditional conventional rules of engagement.
Even the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq has drawn out unprecedented lessons of warcraft, lessons from over a decade or so of military engagement by a battle hardened nation who have deployed some two million servicemen into active duty in the Middle East for Operation Enduring freedom, Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn, and the drawing down operations aimed at securing sustainable peace within the region, now deemed to be a futile attempt since the subsequent rise of ISIL and IS.
Subsequently, weary Nation on a constant war footing acting as the global policeman on his watch will be under tremendous stress in trying to maintain the Anglo-American hegemonic stability through the United Nations platform. Evenso, America has recovered not only from the paroxysms post 911 and the ensuing conflicts in the Middle East and their occupation of a region churning out the next generation of anti-West terrorist cells, the problem was the terrorist cells suddenly morphed into homegrown terrorist cells within Western Societies and communities themselves, transposing and morphing the war on terror straight back home to domestic criminality activity by local radicalised socially and racially profiled local citizens.
The past half decade has been a trying period domestically, not only militarily, but, economically, for the American people, and it seems that only as recently as the past two years the Americans have recovered economically from half a decade long recession, the American economy has slightly recovered nearing the end of the Obama administration. The Obama legacy, at least, from an economic performance context, has been an economic astute recovery from the 2008 recession period, in which the Obama administration had to inherit the economic shock of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) inherited from the previous administration.
However, the legacy of over a decade of war has left an indelible adverse affect upon the nation's psychy, like the potentiality of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) upon the two million or so Veteran servicemen and women, have added certain social and community stresses in Stateside American society.
The 2016 Federal election campaign has seen an acute rise in race hate violence committed not by the lower rung of American redneck society, but, by the officers of the law themselves like some hive minded behvioural patterned conditioning with numerous accounts of black men being killed by trigger happy white police officers in America. Coinciding with this hate meme, has been the general shift to rightwing political leanings of American society, particularly, in response to the Islamic Jihadist acts of terrorism, not only domestically, in America, but, throughout the globe. It is not that terrorism has only become a recent occurance in the past decade or so since September 11, 2001, but, rather, with the digital age the transparency of the information age and the rapidity of instant messaging over the social media in particular has become a double edged sword for the information age. People are informed instantaneously. A police office shoots a black man and the victim's spouse video tapes the shooting livestreaming from her mobile phone and the globe is instantly informed of the incident. No one has time to embellish and to redact or delete sensitve material. In such an example of instant communication the world is more aware of events in an instant. Global terrorism has become livestreamed which makes it more powerful than reading the headline news from the daily tabloids paper which is old news for about six hours ago before publishing.
Uncertainty continues for the free world with a shoot from the hip twitter making instant political quibs from a Republican Presumptive candidate has stirred many people in this short message texting form of politicking, which affects not only American society, but, a global audience feeling uncomfortable knowing that only 180 million eligible voters, in America, would decide whom to vote into the Oval office the most powerful human being on the planet.
The British Brixet has brought about new uncertainties within the European Union in a time when collective solidarity in response to the Ukranian crisis has gathered the military leaders within the European Union, and the Schengen membership, within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), on a clear and present danger war footing with their traditional former Communist world foe Russia. In various and possible theatres of engagement, within Europe, we could identify the various potential hotzones within the Black Sea, Crimea, to South Eastern Ukraine, within the Donbass region. As well as, the potential likelihood of skirmishes within Georgia, and within the Muslim region within Chechnya, which would give Russia and their allies, within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member nations, some grief.
What will, potentially, be the new world order, is the nascent perpetual rise of a new economic bloc between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, known collectively as BRICS. Brazil will be hosting the Rio Olympics, and, there has been a successful psywarfare campaign to undermine the Rio Olympics with the Zika virus scare, which has deterred many athletes and tourists from participating in the 2016 games. Also, the political instability and the social upheavals with an ambitious desire to host the games whilst being ill prepared economically and financially to build the infrastructural development leading to obvious shortcomings before the Rio games, and, added to the physical problems the human resources problems which include the humiliating fiscal mismanagement of unpaid police officers and security personnel, exacerbated with perpetual street marches, and protests. Such a precursor build up for the Rio games has become a anti-climatic deterrence for the Rio games much to the chagrine of the host nation, and, more particularly, as a member of the BRICS fraternity.
Another BRICS member nation, also having a regional crisis, is China, with the recent decision made by the United Nations delivered over the South China Sea artificial island making, and in response to the Philippine government's grievance plight to the United Nations to rule on the rights of the Chinese to take possession of thousands of Exclusive Economic Zone territories simply with the construction of articial islands in previously considered international waters, has been considered as an outrage by regional neighbours livid at the reality of being denied access to the maritime spheres of influence within the South China Sea. As a consequence of this action by the Chinese the Philipines had taken their plight to the UN, the aim of which was to detract and discourage the Chinese from asserting their sovereign influence within the South China Sea, and, in so doing, encroaching upon the exclusive economic zones of other regional sovereign nations such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines and other proximity regional nations, being stood over by China.
Military presence
China, whilst not a member of the CSTO, will, militarily, stand alone in their own regional presence within the South China Sea area.
From a military standpoint, the context of a military brinkmanship has presented the region with a heightened sense of tension which has brought about some added concern over the likely ramification being felt globally. Whereas, the Global war on terror is considered to be an asymmetrical conflict of religious ideas, traditions and a clash of cultures, the regional conflict over the South China Sea, is a traditional theatre of war in a conventional military context. Unlike, the Middle East conflict whereby the level of military engagements is basically conventional small arms Urban Operations (UO) firefights with aerial, artillery and armoury tactical and mechanised support, the conflict was a lopsided affair with a first grade military superpower with a coalition of the willing members on the one hand versus, a third rate substandard military enemy with a primary small arms weaponry of AK47, RPGs and a mounted 50 cal. in most instances with no air protection apart from an RPG or a Shoulder launched SAM, and hidden IEDs. Overall, the Middle Eastern regional conflict over the past decade or so, has been fought on a small arms conventional Urban terrain operation against an enemy armed only with small arms.
However, the prospect of having to engage a superpower enemy on two fronts is an even more daunting task for America to have to face. With A Ukrainian conflict in Europe and having to face the ominous might of the Russian war machine is intimidating to say the least for the Americans and their Allies.
Meanwhile, in South East Asia, facing the Chinese in a direct fist to cuff is another matter entirely. America will receive more than just a bleeding nose with a scrap with the Chinese. If some two million Americans are suffering from PTSD from the decade or so of the GWOT in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Chinese Challenge is entirely an elevated theatre of conflict that will be considered more challenging and demoralising to any Coalition of the Willing elements being led by the United States.
Previous American conflicts with other nations and terrorist movements, since world war two, will be pale in comparison to a conflict between the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member nations, led by Russia, over the Donbass and the Crimean region. As well as, having to prevent the Chinese from completely taking over the entire South China Sea, and America leading the charge by a regional military Alliance led by the US naval force element, is, overall, at least, is probably biting more than NATO, and, any South East Asian military alliance, can chew.
Added to this woe of having to face the Russians in the Donbass region right at their backyard is like playing sport at someone homeground. The homeground advantage will always favour the locals.
Likewise, in the South China Sea, America's allies within the region will be more effective within their own Exclusive Economic Zones, however, they will be hard pressed to police the South China Seas with the heavy traffic of Chinese, and Russian, Submersibles, intermingled with NATO and regional Naval assets, the likelihood of a conventional mutually assured destruction seems a certainty.
What would be a likely outcome from such an armageddon conflict?
A new world order will arise and with it the Pax-Anglo-Americana hegemony will be diminished irreparably. The post 1945 Anglo-American hegemony and even the United Nations itself will probably morph into something less Anglo-American. With Brixet, the British would have relied almost completely upon the Commonwealth of Nations members for their Anglocentric support which under the present geo-political climate is only peripheral in impact upon the BRICS membership.
India, being the only Commonwealth Nation member and as a member of BRICS, which has a neutral stance in any potential conflict in which both sides on the conflict will probably will not trust India and their role and subsequently Indian will sit on the sidelines and watch the play unfold.
In the next few months as the tension will either escalate with whatever nation will try to remove the Chinese artificial islands from the South China Sea, they must be prepared to have a real military skirmish. Such a skirmish will have a serious repercussions throughout the globe not only from a military context but through an ecnomic context as well. In such a brazen disregard of the United Nations decision by China the world will be on the brink of a real Armageddon.
Tim Tufuga
12th July, 2016.
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